Bitcoin: Is the Bull Run Over or Just a Correction?

27-04-2025
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Bitcoin is going through a rough patch as prices decline and bullish momentum gradually weakens. This has sparked debate among analysts about whether the bull run is truly over or whether Bitcoin still has room for a strong recovery.

Bearish Outlook: Weak Demand and Declining Accumulation

Some experts believe that Bitcoin is entering a prolonged correction phase. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju believes that the bull run is over and Bitcoin could face a downtrend in the next 12 months.

Glassnode’s report also highlights the weakening of Bitcoin’s fundamentals. Since Bitcoin failed to sustain above $105,000 in late January, market demand has decreased and accumulation has also decreased. This has led to a market contraction and consolidation, prolonging the downturn.

In addition, other indicators also show that investor sentiment has become more cautious. Bitcoin ETF inflows have been negative for three consecutive weeks, reflecting a decline in institutional interest. Bitcoin futures funding rates are near zero, indicating that neither buyers nor sellers have strong momentum. These factors have led many experts to believe that Bitcoin is facing a difficult period before finding a solid support base.

Impact of Monetary Policy and Macro Factors

An important factor affecting the market is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Currently, Bitcoin is still holding support around $82,000 and has fluctuated only 1.3% over the past week.

The market predicts that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will not change interest rates in the range of 4.25% - 4.50%, with a 99% chance of no rate cut announcement. This could cause Bitcoin to continue its sideways trend, due to a lack of new money flow.

In addition, macro factors such as trade tensions and fears of an economic recession have also contributed to reducing Bitcoin's appeal, as investors prioritize capital preservation instead of pouring money into risky assets.

Optimistic View: Has Bitcoin Bottom Confirmed?

Contrary to the pessimistic view, some analysts believe that Bitcoin is not yet over its bull run. Trader Astronomer commented that Bitcoin has confirmed a bottom around $80,000 and could continue its uptrend in the near future.

Astronomer compared the current situation to Bitcoin's parabolic price increase in 2017, suggesting that the price could reach $160,000 - $200,000 by the end of this cycle. If true, this would be a great opportunity for investors who are patient in the face of market corrections.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is facing a challenging period as demand weakens and caution increases. Despite the negative signs, some experts still believe that Bitcoin has not completely lost its growth momentum.

The upcoming developments will depend on macro factors, institutional moves and changes in investor sentiment. In the context of market uncertainty, investors need to consider carefully before making decisions to take advantage of opportunities or avoid risks.