Chances of UK Man Finding Lost Bitcoins Are 1 in 902 Million
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A UK waste management expert has claimed that the odds of finding a lost hard drive containing the recovery keys to a $669 million bitcoin fortune are just 0.00000011%. However, James Howells, the owner of the hard drive, has steadfastly rejected these estimates while continuing his legal efforts to access the landfill where the hard drive is believed to have been dumped.
The Story of the Lost Bitcoins
James Howells, a computer engineer from Newport, South Wales, claims that his hard drive containing more than 7,500 BTC was mistakenly dumped in 2013. Howells has since pursued legal efforts to access his local landfill to recover the hard drive or seek compensation from Newport City Council. Howells said he mined Bitcoin in 2009 when its value was low, but that asset has now grown to hundreds of millions of dollars.
At a hearing in December 2024, Judge Andrew John Keyser KC dismissed Howells’ lawsuit, saying there was insufficient evidence to proceed. However, Howells and his investment partners continue to discuss buying the entire landfill so they can search for the hard drive.
Chances of finding the hard drive are virtually zero
The chances of finding Howells’ hard drive are extremely slim, according to Mark Hall, a waste management expert at Business Waste. Hall estimates that with the approximately 1.4 million tons of waste at the Newport landfill, the odds of finding the hard drive are 1 in 902 million. He also explained that the waste had been compacted through layers and that the hard drive could have been severely damaged by exposure to elements such as leachate and high temperatures in the landfill.
In addition to the very small chance of finding the hard drive, Hall warned that if the hard drive was found, the chances of recovering the data were very low due to the severe physical damage that could have occurred after years of burial.
Howells dismisses expert opinion
In response to the claims of the waste management company, James Howells strongly refuted their assertions, saying that the chances of recovering the data were not “0%” as claimed. Howells asserted that his team used advanced technology to search and had the financial means to carry out the search effectively. He also stressed that the data stored on the hard drive was only a small file, which increased the chances of successful data recovery.
Howells believes that waste management experts do not have enough experience in handling AI object detection systems, which his team has been studying extensively. He insists that his efforts are not in vain and remains confident in his chances of success.
Dangers of the Search
Mark Hall warns that searching the dumpsite can be fraught with dangers, including physical risks from sharp objects, hazardous waste, and methane gas buildup that can cause fires and explosions. He also notes that the dumpsites may contain asbestos and other hazardous waste, which could pose a health risk to the searchers.
What next?
Howells says he remains determined to pursue the search and plans to appeal the court’s decision. If the search fails, he has not ruled out issuing a utility token or NFT related to the hard drive search campaign. Howells believes the crypto community will support his efforts.
